Eh?

Dropping in via eretria (I had to see where it was 50 degrees), with a Canuck view on the election. I haven't heard or read anywhere that the Liberals are projected to win a majority. Right now it's looking like a Conservative minority (because of that 37% poll). Basically, whoever wins Quebec and Ontario wins the election, which is why Martin has been reverting to scare tactics in Ontario in his attempt to win back support there.

I live in Alberta, which you might know is a Conservative stronghold. And if it's any comfort to you, most Canadian conservatives would be middle-of-the-road in the U.S. and almost all are committed to continuing our social programs such as medicare, so if the Conservatives win it won't be anything like the Republicans winning south of the border.

But seriously, coalitions generally don't fly in Canada. If a minority gov't gets in tomorrow (Liberal or Conservative), we will probably be facing another election in less than a year. *sigh*

I don't know if I answered your question at all, but it was great to dump a mini-rant at your feet.

:-)

Okay... I'm still completely confused. You'll have to be patient with me as I'm not familiar with parliamentry governments beyond the barest basics, and I (obviously) live in the far South, so I don't think about Canada very often. I had thought that whichever party ended up with a majority (and by majority, I don't mean over 50%; I just mean more than any other party) of the seats gets to pick the Prime Minister. So what confuses me is how, if the Conservatives are so very far ahead, Martin still seems to be the predicted PM. I was assuming that a coalition was why the Conservatives would need 42% to win, but you say no. So I am just very, very confused.

Basically, whoever wins Quebec and Ontario wins the election.

I'm assuming because those are the most populous areas? I know Quebec leans left, so I guess that's why Ontario is still in play?

And if it's any comfort to you, most Canadian conservatives would be middle-of-the-road in the U.S.

It's not. I would definitely hate to see the Tories win. Seeing yet another conservative movement take wing would be incredibly depressing.

If a minority gov't gets in tomorrow (Liberal or Conservative), we will probably be facing another election in less than a year.

Just like Germany! Oh well. I'd kill for votes of no confidence. Four years seems like forever.

The leader of the party that wins the most seats will be PM. If you're hearing that Martin is being predicted to remain PM then whomever is doing the predicting thinks the Liberals will win the most seats.

To be a majority gov't, your party has to have more seats than all the other parties combined. That way they can't get together and defeat you in a no confidence vote. Minority gov'ts, where the ruling party has more seats than anyone else but not more than half the seats in the house, tend to have a very short shelf life because of how difficult it is for the various parties to work together. Clear as mud?

One more sleep and all will be revealed.

Okay. So then I guess whoever told me Martin would be PM unless the Conservatives won with 42% of the vote was on crack. That was the thing that was confusing me.

Okay. So then I guess whoever told me Martin would be PM unless the Conservatives won with 42% of the vote was on crack.

Or something. :-)

Well... There's 308 seats, so for there to be a majority government the party would have to get more than half of those, otherwise its a minority. Which it was, and probably will still be, whether the Liberals win or not.
I don't think that's what you wanted to know, but politics pretty much go right over my head. I learnt all this last year in social studies, but it was all in french, and things make a lot less sense in french.

No, that really helps! I was thrown for a minute because I was thinking of the majority in terms of whoever won the most seats, not who won more than half of the seats.

What I don't understand is why the Tories, with 37% of the seats, still seem that they won't pick up the PM office. Is it because every seat votes, and NDP and Greens and BQ will vote for Martin rather than... the other dude?

Harper is the other dude.

I'm not good with politics since I usually get my mum to explain it all to me. But for the NDP, Green and BQ votes I believe that they wouldn't vote for Martin since *cough*martinisanass*cough*... okay I can't say anything nice.
Yea, I'm Conservative as you can see.

Oh, boo hiss! The Tories are awful!

Canada confuses me because all of these Canadian people I know are all like, "George Bush sucks, the Iraq War sucks, w00t slash!" and now they're all voting Tory! DUDE.

But yeah. Martin is a total ass. Do you know what would happen in America if one of our politicians called your PM a "moron" or called Canadians bunch of "bastards"? Yeah, it wouldn't be pretty.